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Old 16-Sep-2003   #31
Geodude
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Quote:
Originally posted by Walter_Pall
If 100 masters are asked to choose 15 best trees from 100 trees and come up with 30 different trees then they have agreement on 15, which is 50 percent.


Well... what if 99 masters agreed on 15 trees, but the last master chose 15 completely different trees to make up the 30 trees. Wouldn't that be 99% agreement and 1% disagreement?

This is from a geologist who used to be a math major.

You're right, Fred. This is going to drive me nuts
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Old 16-Sep-2003   #32
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Walter,

If 50 people agree on 15 trees and the other 50 people agree on the other 15 trees, then yes, the agreement is 50%.

But what if 85 people agree on the first 15 trees and the remaining 15 people agree on the other 15 tree? In this case the agreement on the first 15 trees has a higher "weight" (such as in weighted average). So the overall agreement has to be higher than in the first case.

Geodude,
you need to get your math straight: if 100 people result in 100 opinions, thats a 1% agreement and 99% disagreement. Therefore, if 100 people result in 30 opinions, that's a 30% agreement and 70% disagreement,
Sorry,

Math is fun
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Old 16-Sep-2003   #33
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Geodude,
I just read your last post to Walter
I agree with you. That was my point using the weighted average.

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Old 16-Sep-2003   #34
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Quote:
It is amazing to me at times how a person's "mental models" and paradigms filter and distort what (s)he experiences


Fred, stereotypes can be just as positive as negative and do not necessarily distort at all. For example:

1. Fat people are jolly, Germans are efficient, black people are athletic, Italians are passionate, Americans are hard-working, English are stylish, blondes have more fun, Japanese are team workers.

Read again:

2. Fat people are unfit, Germans are stiff, black people are lazy, Italians are corrupt, Americans are culturally castrated, English have rotten teeth, blondes are dumb, Japanese are indoctrinated robots.

Unfortunately for you and others, there is a growing level of research that suggests that stereotyping is a useful (and usually accurate) tool. Also, that stereotypes evolve as cultures and nationalities change. For example, in the 18th century, Italians considered the English to be the passionate ones!

Now, if I were to say that bonsai is done by old men, that would be stereotyping. However, it does not necessarily mean that I think that ALL bonsai enthusiasts MUST be old men. Stereotyping is about probability. The probability is that a bonsai enthusiast will be older, rather than younger. The probability is that a bonsai enthusiast will be a man. Any arguments here?

Let's take a couple of my positive stereotypes so as not to upset anyone:

1. Germans are efficient. A commonly held stereotype. Does this mean that it is inaccurate? No, quite the opposite. For some time the Germans have had a very high GDP output per worker, significantly higher than the US.

2. Americans are hard working. Another commonly held stereotype. Untrue? No, again the opposite. Americans take significantly less time off work than Europeans.

Damn, those stereotypes can be true after all. (On average, and in the main). They may help us to make sense of our very confusing world and (I suspect) that their origins are rooted in our need to generalise risk to survive.

Just a different take on the subject.

Regards,

Fish.
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Old 16-Sep-2003   #35
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Quote:
Originally posted by Attila
if 100 people result in 100 opinions, thats a 1% agreement and 99% disagreement.


How can there be any percentage of agreement if no one agreed, except with him/herself

Aargh... I remember why I switched majors and ended up on something that would require me to pound on rocks with a large hammer.
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Old 16-Sep-2003   #36
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Geodude,
funny point, however:

If there is only you (1 person) and you happen to agree with yourself(), thats 100% agreement.

If there are 100 people and you are the only one agreing with yourself that is 1% agreement (remember, can't be zero since zero times 100 would be still zero, it has to be greater than zero).

(funny, I also used to be a geologist with math major, now I am a CGA, canadian equivalent of CPA)

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Old 16-Sep-2003   #37
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Fish, I do not disagree with your comments. They are interesting, but have little to do with the point I made to Carmi: He seriously misread my comments, clearly because of the way he filtered and distorted them as they made their way through his "mental model" of Americans. It would be my wish that he might reconsider his stereotype of Americans, especially since it is so necessary in order to make sense of a seriously insane world.

It was not my intention to raise the issue of how useful or even essential stereotypes are. However, since it has now been raised, please let me compliment you on an excellent discussion of that issue.

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Old 16-Sep-2003   #38
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Interesting. I wonder who is suffering from the distortion from their mental model and who is not.


Quote:
BTW there are more places much more dangerous in the USA than the Egyptian market, there they may steal your money but not cut your throat... I had been there and in the USA.


1. In Israel (where I think Carmi lives) there are 42 violent crimes per 1000 head of population, In the US it is 56 per 1000. True stereotype. (According to Interpol).

2. Prisoner population per 100,000 in the US is the highest in the world. (EIU). True stereotype.


Quote:
I think your observations of American society are totally off base. For all its faults, the US is the most genuinely religious society in the world today, as well as the most generous.


Really? Where does your information come from Fred?

I can't even imagine how one would prove how religious a nation is, (nor how it has any bearing on anything). Religiosity, is, after all, perhaps not such a positive thing when taken to extremes.

However, the US is not the most generous society in the world today - and by a large margin.

Generous to whom? Their own citizens? Nope. That honour goes to Sweden.
Generous to the outside world in aid bugets? Wrong again.

Japan gives some $ 13.5 bn compared with a rather paltry $ 9.9bn from the US. Considering that the US economy is growing, whereas Japan's is contracting and considering that the US economy is actually twice the size (by GDP) of the Japanese economy anyway, means that per capita, the US's generosity is outpaced by many nations - including Canada.

Food for thought. Possibly a distortion in one's mental model.

Regards,

Fish.
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Old 16-Sep-2003   #39
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Why, thank you Fish. Generous indeed for you to share your thoughts with me. Certainly food for thought.

Your friend, fred
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Old 16-Sep-2003   #40
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Fish,

I trust your numbers, but there is a glitch in your logic:

1) Americans have 56 reported crimes per 1000 people.
This is not a true stereotype. It's a number reported by the Interpol.
A stereotype would be: americans have a violent personality.
Is that true? I don't think so.

(by the way, I lived in a little mining town in Europe where there were at least 15 violent crimes every payday since half of the miners got drunk. not even the local police was notified, forget the Interpol)

2) Everyone knows that the US has the highest number of inmates amongst the developed nations. That's not a true stereotype: it's a fact. You just have to count the inmates.
A stereotype would be: americans are the most violent in the world; or: americans are all thieves (that's why they are so many imprisoned); These would be stereotypes and I would't venture to say that they are true.

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